![]() ![]() ![]() Even after he hurtfully strafed my beloved USC Trojans in the Rose Bowl (this year is our year, says the alum who has been disappointed since seeing Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush rock the Coliseum), I came in with hopes for him as high as for any rookie running back. ![]() (14.3 ADP on Underdog Fantasy, 27th ranked in SPAGS Rankings) Most Overvalued 'Stud' RB: Saquon Barkley Give it a shot (and don't be afraid to double your deposit up to $100 on Underdog with promo code OUTSIDERS). There's also data points from our friends at Sports Info Solutions, player DVOA numbers, KUBIAK projections, and obsessively updated blurbs from me about how I perceive a player's value or upside alongside their current Underdog ADP, based off of half-point PPR scoring. But it also stands for Superior Players And Great Spots, which I think sums up the key things you should seek when targeting or ranking any player in fantasy football. Because I'm an aspiring egotist, it does in fact share my name. If you want to see more, check out FO's brand spanking new SPAGS Best Ball Rankings. Now that we're friends, I can safely share these takes with you. I have won over six figures doing this stuff in the course of my career and, rest assured, every piece of content you'll ever see from me seeks to present the picture as I see it in the hopes it helps you decide accordingly. I bathe in the merger of analytics and film like all of our great staff here, but all through the prism of spending WAY too much time talking about, and participating in, fantasy football and betting. I also host the prolific Football Outsiders-affiliated show Splash Play with my pal Pete Overzet, a place where we cover fantasy football year-round, stream live drafts, and hem and haw over every bet and DraftKings daily fantasy play. In addition to being a lifelong fan of Aaron and the team's work at Football Outsiders-it is genuinely what got me into analytics back in college-I have worked behind the scenes to help FO's efforts as a VP of content and, as of May last year, managing the whole team as an SVP of Content and Strategy. Why should you listen to me? Some helpful context is that I came to Football Outsiders' parent company from fantasy football/sports betting leader Stokastic back in 2021 after working with their founding team as an editorial lead and host (while honing my skills and best practices in fantasy and betting) since the company's inception. Each day, there are thousands of fantasy football monkeys at typewriters creating Shakespeare that you can use to your advantage.) You can skip below to see that. (In short: market-derived average draft positions are the best tool you can use as a North Star to determine a player's most likely value, same as consensus betting odds for sports betting. I'll also share some I find to be current late-round gems relative to Underdog's ADPs. Today I'll reveal some players I find currently overvalued to varying extents in 2023 fantasy football drafts for equally varied reasons. Is it teetering on degeneracy to draft teams when you don't know where the rookies will end up, let alone who survives sweltering training camp heats and tensed up ligaments? Perhaps! Is it fun and potentially as profitable as anything you else you might tackle in fantasy football and betting? A stronger perhaps! Yes, the biggest time for everyone to wrap their heads around the sport over the proverbial water cooler remains July and August-the time of year where training camps spill over with Super Bowl dreams and players with The Athletic articles fawning over their upside.īut with the rise of best ball fantasy football-including pre-NFL draft best ball tournaments with $1 million in total prizes, like Underdog Fantasy's Big Board, which is currently filling up-you can start to wager real money on the advantage that comes from your 365-day-per-year knowledge of football. NFL Offseason - Each year, the offseason NFL coverage and fantasy football industrial complex begin earlier and earlier. ![]()
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